Over the past couple of days, I’ve watched everyone hard-wire ETF fund flows together with U.S. stock market risk appetite to interpret crypto’s rises and dips, and it makes me want to laugh a little (the mild kind). To put it plainly, a genuinely stable “trend” on the chart is often just option time value quietly devouring you.

The buyers want a burst of upside—when they buy, the emotions feel great. But after two days of going sideways, theta is like a little knife cutting you a bit every day, and before you know it, it has sliced away your patience. The sellers look even more “steady”: they collect the premium and time is on your side. But the moment a single needle pokes in, margin calls, slippage, and a whole chain of knock-on reactions follow—if your exit path isn’t clear, then just wait to be carried out.

When I look at options, I ask myself one question first: how do you get out of this trade? Where’s the liquidity? Otherwise, you think you’re betting on direction—but really, you’re betting on time and human nature. Anyway, I’d rather do a little less than become someone else’s meal money for time value.