#BitcoinBouncesBack

Best Short Setup Prediction Analysis for Bitcoin in One Year

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
is currently trading around US$75,400 after previously rejecting the US$78,000 area earlier this week. The price is on the upper path of a rising parallel channel that has held for 75 days.

This setup places Bitcoin at a critical moment. The daily Relative Strength Index pattern (RSI) is narrowing, and the 4-hour chart shows bearish divergence. A widely shared X post refers to this as the third rejection zone in the last eight months.

Breakout of the Downtrend Line Meets Upper Channel

The daily Bitcoin chart shows a downtrend line from the peak of US$126,195 formed in October 2025. This line connects to the cycle low in February 2026 at US$60,000. For the first time in this cycle, Bitcoin broke above this line on April 13.

Two ascending parallel channels define the latest price structure. The first channel lasted 70 days before breaking down at the end of January. The current channel has reached day 75, with the price pressing against its upper boundary.

The BBWP indicator at the bottom of the chart records volatility contraction. Its level is at the cycle’s lowest, typically a classic accumulation sign before a strong directional price move.

Bitcoin must hold the US$74,000 to US$76,000 zone to maintain this structure. If this range is broken, the downtrend line around US$70,000 becomes a secondary support. The next demand cluster is between US$64,000 and US$66,000. The nearest resistance is the Fibonacci 0.382 level in the US$85,000 to US$87,000 range.

Daily RSI Forms an Increasingly Narrowing Triangle

The daily RSI is forming a symmetrical triangle from three descending peaks and two support tests. The first peak appeared in the deeply overbought area in October 2025.

The second peak formed in mid-January 2026 with RSI touching 70 before being sharply rejected. The latest—third—peak was limited around 68 some time earlier this month.

On the support side, RSI briefly dropped to oversold levels near 15 during the February decline. The second test at around 40 in March held, confirming the upward trend line.

The RSI triangle is now very tight. A clean breakout into the overbought area would confirm a bullish continuation scenario. Conversely, a breakdown below the support line would steer momentum toward bearish.

4-Hour Chart Shows Five-Drive Bearish Divergence

The 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows a short-term uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. This structure has persisted since late March, when the price dropped to around US$65,500, connected by an upward trend line at that swing low.

The price briefly rejected the US$78,000 zone earlier this week. This level also aligns with the top of the daily parallel channel. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near US$75,400, sitting exactly above the rising trend line that has been a bounce point since early April.

The 4-hour RSI recorded a slightly lower low, while the price made a higher high. This pattern forms a five-drive bearish divergence, indicating momentum is weakening behind the price increase.

The MACD has also crossed below its signal line and is moving closer to the negative zone. If the price falls below US$74,500, it will confirm a shift in short-term momentum and trigger the daily uptrend line.

Analyst Highlights Third Rejection Zone

A chart posted on X by analyst ColdBloodedShiller highlights an important rejection zone for Bitcoin. The same zone has limited every BTC rally over the past eight months. The three pink boxes mark October 2025 around US$116,000, January 2026 around US$96,000, and the current level near US$76,000.

The trader describes this area as a short setup with the best risk-to-reward opportunities available. Every time the price touches the previous upper band, a sharp reversal occurs. This pattern also aligns with the breakout of the daily trendline and bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart as previously explained.

“If this breaks out upward, it will be the most significant market change in the last 12 months,” the analysis states.

However, institutional flows make the bearish scenario more complicated. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, added about US$2.54 billion worth of BTC between April 13 and 19. Their average purchase price is close to US$74,395. Continuous demand around this level could weaken the repeated rejection pattern.

The next three to five daily candles may determine the conflict between the channel breakout and ColdBloodedShiller’s third rejection scenario.