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I saw an interesting analysis by Van De Poppe on the Bitcoin/gold ratio. The analyst raises a point that isn't often discussed: according to the RSI applied to the BTC/gold pair, we are currently in an extremely oversold territory for Bitcoin.
Basically, this is the fourth time in history that this indicator has fallen below 30 on this pair. The previous three times? The lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022. Not a bad historical track record. Van De Poppe suggests that this could indicate an overvaluation of gold relative to Bitcoin, with a possible rotation in progress.
The gap compared to the 20-week moving average is also massive, according to him. The idea is that historical data doesn't lie, even if it doesn't guarantee anything either. What's interesting is that Van De Poppe also questions the four-year Bitcoin cycle theory. He argues that the volatility of 2025 has already largely exceeded this framework.
As I write this, BTC is at $75,520, up 1.97% over the past 7 days. Nothing spectacular in the short term, but the technical signal Van De Poppe highlights suggests that something could move regarding the gold/Bitcoin ratio. To watch closely.