Recently, everyone has been combining stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC quotes to draw conclusions, basically confusing correlation with causation. An increase in stablecoins might just be a change in packaging for on-chain transfers, and ETF inflows and outflows are more like a sentiment thermometer, not necessarily indicating an imminent rally.

There are also those large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges that get screenshot as smart money… I really am exhausted. Large amounts = smart? It could also be arbitrage, market making, risk control rebalancing, or even just address splitting. Anyway, my current habit is: first check depth and slippage, split orders and eat them slowly, don’t hard match with bots; the long-term winners are not about talent, but about sticking to these boring small actions.