Bitunix Analyst: Dollar Pricing Power Wavers Between Policy Credibility and War Outcomes, Market Enters Currency-Dominated Risk Redistribution Phase

On April 21, the market began trading on “who dictates the terms of the end.” Trump has clearly compressed the ceasefire time window while maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, turning energy supply risks into negotiation tools; however, internal divisions in Iran regarding the negotiation stance make it difficult to form a unified path in the short term. This has caused geopolitical risks to evolve from a single event into variables that continuously affect expectations. Against this backdrop, the core driving logic of the dollar has shifted: it is no longer limited to interest rate differentials and safe-haven status, but instead focuses on a comprehensive pricing of “policy credibility and liquidity pathways.” On one hand, Waller released a clear hawkish underlying framework of “maintaining independence and adhering to inflation” before the hearing, effectively negating the possibility of aggressive rate cuts in the short term, which provides structural support for the dollar; on the other hand, political pressure for rate cuts continues, and the market is still trading potential paths of “balance sheet contraction hedging against rate cuts,” preventing the dollar from forming a unilateral trend and instead entering a volatile range. Structurally, the DXY has retreated from a rebound high (around 100.5) and is currently fluctuating near 98, entering a short-term weak consolidation phase, but there remains clear support in the 97.4–97.0 range. This indicates that the market has not fully shifted to risk preference but is reassessing “whether the dollar still possesses safe-haven and interest rate differential advantages.” In other words, the dollar is not turning bearish but is entering a “pricing divergence period”—with the upper bound constrained by policy leadership and rate cut expectations, while the lower bound is supported by war and inflation. This dollar structure directly impacts the operational mechanism of the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently testing around 76K repeatedly, while the lower bound of 72.5K remains a key support area, with overall liquidity still being redistributed within the range. The dollar’s “non-trending but high volatility” characteristic will amplify BTC’s false breakouts and liquidity harvesting actions, rather than driving a unilateral market. The key lies in the two potential paths for the dollar in the future: if the war escalates and energy inflation persists, the Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain high interest rates, causing the dollar to strengthen again, making the upper liquidity range for BTC (77K–78K) more likely to become a lure for buying; conversely, if negotiations progress and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, with inflation expectations falling, the market will reprice the rate cut path, leading to a weaker dollar and allowing BTC to break through high liquidity and extend. In summary, the current market narrative has shifted from “the risk event itself” to “how the dollar prices these events.” Until the dollar forms a clear direction, the cryptocurrency market will essentially remain in a range-bound fluctuation, driven by liquidity rather than trends.