Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin Price Increase in Coming Days Could Signal Start of Bull Market Phase One

On April 22, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl released a report stating that Bitcoin’s price hit a low of approximately $63,000 around February 5, and has since rebounded over 20%, currently sitting at about $76,000—slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers. Due to the complete transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain, the cost basis of each transaction can be tracked. Analysts often focus on a metric called ‘realized price,’ which is the weighted average price of all circulating coins based on their last on-chain transfer. The realized price for Bitcoin traded in the last 1 to 3 months is approximately $74,000, indicating that recent buyers have returned to breakeven. If Bitcoin’s price continues to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will move into profit (with positive PnL), which is often viewed as one of the signals for the start of the first phase of a bull market. The core conclusion is that although Bitcoin’s price remains significantly below last October’s peak, many recent buyers have returned to breakeven, suggesting that Bitcoin has formed a relatively solid market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.