Lately, I've been checking on-chain transfers, and someone always says, "These transactions are just too coincidental."

But I prefer to break down the coincidences: which exchange they came from, which intermediary wallets they passed through, whether the same set of addresses is doing accumulation/distribution.
Often, it's just straightforward fund flow paths that we mistakenly interpret as conspiracies... Of course, some are genuinely trying to evade tracking, but their traces tend to be more regular.

These days, the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks keeps getting brought up again and again, and everyone is anxious about selling pressure.
My approach is pretty simple: when I see unusually large transactions, I don’t jump to conclusions right away. I first take a screenshot (it's kind of my little trick), then check the subsequent flow the next day.
It helps me stay calmer.
Anyway, I don’t chase short-term moves—just treat it as a weather forecast for activity levels.