So Kevin Warsh just filed his financial paperwork with the Senate on Monday, which is actually a pretty big deal because this was the hold-up blocking his hearing. The Trump administration is pushing hard to get their fed chair pick confirmed before Powell's term ends on May 15, but there's still friction. Senator Thom Tillis is apparently holding out until a criminal case related to Powell gets resolved, while the Justice Department wants to keep pressing forward. It's turning into a bit of a procedural chess match.

Meanwhile, Stephen Miran, one of Trump's Fed governors, came out this week playing down inflation concerns in a way that's pretty different from what other officials are worried about. He's saying energy shocks from geopolitical tensions hit fast but fade just as quick, and he doesn't see evidence that inflation expectations are rising. The guy's been consistently dovish since his appointment last September, pushing for rate cuts when the rest of the committee wants to hold steady. On stablecoins, he's basically shrugging it off, saying even if some deposits move into crypto products, it won't matter much for the broader economy.

Now here's where it gets interesting for markets. Jimmy Cramer made the point that if rates don't climb back up, the next fed chair under Warsh probably won't be hiking either and might even cut. The real inflation story right now is energy and tariffs, but Cramer thinks the Fed will treat these as one-off spikes. His take: natural gas is actually our secret weapon because we're producing it domestically and it's way cheaper than in other countries. Cars are more efficient too.

Bottom line for investors? Rates still matter way more than geopolitical drama when it comes to stock valuations. When rates go up, future earnings get discounted harder, and that's when multiple compression really bites. The fed chair transition and Powell's deadline are definitely worth watching, but the rate trajectory is what's actually going to move portfolios.