Recently, I came across an economic analysis that’s definitely worth paying attention to. The Trump administration and the Republican Party are promoting their big, beautiful bill, claiming that they can help low-income workers through tax cuts and cuts to Medicaid—especially by eliminating measures like the tip tax—saying it will ease inflation. Sounds good, right?

But there’s a problem here. Economic strategists point out that conflict between Trump and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly cancels out the benefits of the entire bill. Oil prices are now around $102 per barrel, and if things worsen by summer, they could surge to more than $150.

Do you know what that means? First is gasoline prices. Second, the speed at which ships pass through the strait drops significantly. In the past, 130 ships passed per day; now it’s only 35, and Chinese ships are even banned from passing. This directly affects transportation costs.

When transportation becomes more expensive, everything becomes more expensive. Amazon, Walmart, and Target’s trucking freight costs rise, and nationwide diesel prices have already exceeded $5. These costs ultimately get passed on to goods—the food and everyday items you see at the supermarket will all go up in price. Simply put, the tax breaks this bill wants to give you will be completely swallowed up by the rise in energy and logistics costs.

Worse still, Oxford Economics Research Institute expects inflation to reach 4%. This means the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates—instead, it might raise them. Your mortgage becomes more expensive, your startup costs increase, and the entire economy freezes up. Structurally speaking, gasoline is just the beginning; there will be a whole chain reaction of knock-on effects after that. So while this bill may look good on the surface, in reality it’s already been slapped in the face by the real world.