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I checked out a certain blockchain game's pool during my lunch break.
The initial output looked pretty promising, but once inflation kicks in heavily and no one really uses the reward tokens, the selling pressure is like a faucet that’s never turned off.
TVL may be strong, but it can't hold up…
To put it simply, it’s not “lack of liquidity,” but that the output has become something everyone defaults to selling.
Later, you'll see situations where: new money coming in uses the previous participants’ outputs, making the pool look lively, but in reality, it’s slowly leaking.
Recently, the group has been discussing whether extreme funding rates will reverse or if the bubble will continue to be squeezed.
I feel the same logic applies to blockchain games: when “returns” mainly come from inflation rather than demand, sentiment can quickly turn into a collective rush to exit.
Anyway, when I look at these pools now, I first observe how the output is being absorbed; otherwise, no matter how big the numbers get, it’s only temporary.