Galaxy Futures: Operate in the short term based on technical chart patterns, but pay attention to the rebound after a second bottom test.

Currently, the total inventory of polysilicon industry is close to 500k tons, with factory inventories approaching 330k tons. There is no expectation of demand improvement, and near-term spot price pressure still exists. In the long cycle, the polysilicon industry may also see policy benefits such as energy consumption control and environmental protection restrictions, which are optimistic for ultra-long-term price trends. In the short term, the market price has already approached 43,000 yuan/ton, and industry advanced capacity operating at full capacity to break even when prices rise above 45,000 yuan/ton. From a valuation perspective, the current price reflects sentiment and policy premiums. Considering near-term spot pressure and a policy-driven vacuum period, prices may dip again for a second bottom. Overall, market sentiment is high, but given the premium in the market, it is not recommended to chase the highs; after further upward movement, technical charts suggest a mid-term pullback. After the second bottom, buying on dips remains a viable strategy. (Galaxy Futures)