Recently, I came across an analysis report published by the major market maker Wintermute, and it made me think, “I see.” In short, the situation in which altcoins don’t rise isn’t just a temporary lull—rather, the market structure itself is changing.

Looking at the data, the average duration of altcoin upswings in 2025 is about 20 days. Compared with roughly 60 days the previous year, that’s down to one-third. In other words, it’s not only that altcoins don’t rise—when they do rise, it ends quickly. During that time, the capital being absorbed goes mostly to just a handful of large-cap coins. Small- and mid-size altcoins remain mired in weakness as before.

Why is this happening? In the traditional market, there was a cycle in which capital flowed into Bitcoin, then into Ethereum, and afterward spread to the altcoin sector as a whole. That narrative-driven flow is what created the altcoin market. However, that traditional cycle has weakened.

The main cause is the evolution of ETFs and digital asset treasury companies. They’ve turned into a “closed-off garden.” Stable capital flows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large altcoins. But because the investment targets are limited, capital doesn’t move on to altcoins beyond that. Liquidity is being trapped within specific assets.

On top of that, individual investors’ interest has shifted toward stock-market themes like AI and quantum computing. This is accelerating the backdrop of why altcoins aren’t rising.

What’s interesting is that there’s still a possibility that this situation could change. Three scenarios are possible. First, ETFs, and similar products, expand the range of their investment targets. Because applications for Solana and XRP ETFs are moving forward, there are signs. Second, a rise in the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum could spill over into the altcoin market as a whole. That’s possible, but it’s unclear how much capital would actually flow in. Third, individual investors’ interest could move back from stocks to crypto assets. It’s also been pointed out that this is the least likely scenario.

In the end, it means we’ve entered an era where forecasts based on the traditional four-year cycle no longer work. It’s become important to gauge the flow of liquidity and shifts in investor sentiment. The reason altcoins aren’t rising isn’t just a matter of market cycles; the mechanism of capital allocation itself is changing.