Lately, I've been messing around with address profiling again—tags, clustering, and adding a fund flow chart. It looks pretty scientific, but the more I look at it, the more uneasy I feel: the same person using a dozen different wallets, bots mixed with humans, exchange hot wallets still "visiting" each other, and the final "whale" clusters might just be a platform doing arbitrage... To put it plainly, it's only useful as a lead, not as evidence.

My current approach is a bit crude: first, check if the overall fund inflows and outflows are continuous, then add a "credibility" column in the table. For those cases where one or two transactions skew the conclusion, I directly downgrade their credibility. Also, I've been thinking—recently, everyone talks about rate cut expectations and the US dollar index jumping around with risk assets. When this macro sentiment hits, on-chain tags are more likely to be misread as "smart money pre-positioning," but it might just be everyone trembling together. Anyway, I remind myself to stay calm and not be scared by the charts.