I just came across a market development worth paying attention to. After the U.S. Navy blocked the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged directly above $104 per barrel, which has a significant impact on our daily fueling costs.

The most immediate feeling is the change in gas station prices. The national average gasoline price has risen to $4.12 per gallon, which is $0.53 more than a month ago. If oil prices continue to rise, JPMorgan analysts warn that gasoline could directly break through $5 per gallon. That’s a considerable expense for drivers.

WTI crude oil jumped over 8% on Monday, and Brent crude also increased by 7.5%. It seems the market reacted very strongly to this blockade. Even more interesting is the performance of the physical oil market—the spot price of Dated Brent soared to $126 per barrel, and earlier this month, it even hit a record of $144. The price difference between this and futures contracts is usually only $1 to $2, but now it’s wildly out of proportion, indicating the market is truly feeling the pressure of supply tightness.

Refineries in Europe and Asia are scrambling to purchase available supplies, which also pushes up oil prices. Wholesale costs rise, eventually flowing down to gas stations, and consumers end up paying the bill. The rise in oil prices isn’t just a numbers game; it directly affects inflation expectations and global economic growth, which is why economists are now a bit nervous.

Both WTI and Brent are currently firmly above $100, a level that typically triggers widespread market concern. In the short term, drivers should prepare for rising commuting costs.