Recently looked at the gold and silver market trends and found that this rebound might be more interesting than everyone thinks.

Last week, London gold opened at $4,662, surged to around $4,857, and finally closed at $4,749. This move looks a bit like a bottoming process, especially considering changes in the geopolitical situation. Between the U.S. and Iran, they first reached a ceasefire agreement; investors saw some hope for a time. However, the Pakistan negotiations directly broke down, and the U.S. turned around and ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This action directly pushed market uncertainty to a new height, and gold prices have already rebounded by about 15% from the lows.

From a technical perspective, gold prices are currently at a critical level. The key line between bulls and bears is around $4,736. It is still trading below this level, indicating that the bears still have the upper hand, but the advantage is not very obvious. If gold can effectively break through $4,736 and hold above it, the trend could shift toward the bulls within the week. Resistance above should be watched at $4,871 and $4,993. On the other hand, if it falls below $4,614, support would need to be looked at lower, around $4,479.

Interestingly, the gold-silver ratio has also changed. Recently, the gold-silver ratio has retreated from a high to 62.59, which shows that silver’s rebound strength is even stronger than gold’s. According to analysis, silver prices this week may trade in a range of $72.5 to $83.5, and this adjustment in the gold-silver ratio may suggest that market risk appetite is gradually recovering.

On the macro front, Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of remarks this week, and the Beige Book will also be released. The market is gradually shifting toward more hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve, but Bank of America still maintains its forecast of two rate cuts in 2026. The key variable is that Waller is about to become the Fed Chair—how he sets monetary policy could quickly change market expectations. If he releases signals that inflation is improving and policy will be eased, Bank of America’s rate-cut forecast would be persuasive; if he comes across as too hawkish, even the current consensus of one rate cut might look too optimistic.

The IMF is already considering lowering its forecast for global economic growth, and global debt has also surged to a historical high of $348 trillion. All of these background factors are supporting gold prices, but in the short term, the geopolitical situation remains highly tense, and the movement of the gold-silver ratio is also reflecting changes in the market’s attitude toward risk assets.

Technically, what needs to be watched out for is that if gold forms a right-shoulder pattern, there could be downside risk afterward. Support is concentrated in the $4,530 to $4,500 range; if this support is effectively broken, the market could start a new round of downside pressure in the near term. But from the weekly chart, the closing patterns of consecutive small bullish candles still show that there are clear signs of bottoming. This week, it is highly likely that gold will continue to trade in this range and look for opportunities to rebound.