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Bitcoin price holds above $75k - Strategy holds 815k coins plus ETF inflows, will geopolitical black swans cause a dip?

On April 21, Bitcoin’s price held above the $75k mark, supported by two institutional forces: Strategy’s holdings of 815k BTC with an average cost of about $75,527; and Bitcoin ETFs experiencing three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with nearly $1 billion flowing in weekly. Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reignite, with US-Iran ceasefire expiring on April 22, and geopolitical black swans descending. $75k is both the bulls’ cost line and the bears’ target. Will this chain of institutional support and geopolitical shocks collide to create a golden pit, or will it break through the last line of defense?

Bitcoin has been oscillating around the $75k to $76,000 range, with the latest quote at $75,547. This price is not only a psychological technical milestone but also a cost line made of real gold and silver, representing the position average of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder.

Behind this defense line stands a group of unyielding institutional forces. But just as the bulls gather, alarms ring again over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims the US violated the ceasefire agreement and announced “from the evening of that day, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” prompting the US military to attack an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Overnight, the situation shifted from negotiations to the brink of conflict.

Market panic spreads: on April 20, Bitcoin rapidly dropped from $78,000, with over 200k traders liquidated, totaling about $317 million.

$75,000 is not just a number; it’s a position.

Strategy invests $2.54 billion in a week to buy more against the trend

From April 13 to 19, Strategy invested approximately $2.54 billion, purchasing 34,164 BTC at an average price of about $74,395, marking the third-largest weekly increase in its history. As a result, its total holdings reached 815,061 BTC, accounting for over 3.8% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an average cost of about $75,527.

Strong capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, Bitcoin ETF inflows for the year have surpassed $1 billion, successfully reversing previous net outflows and achieving positive growth. Last week, the overall net inflow into crypto ETPs was $1.4 billion, with Bitcoin spot ETFs contributing about $1 billion, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.

During the week of April 13–17, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $996 million, reaching the highest level since mid-January 2026.

On April 20, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $256 million, with total net inflows reaching $64.63 billion.

Geopolitical black swan shocks: will they create a golden pit or an endless abyss?

Bitcoin’s tug-of-war around $75,000, Strategy’s holdings of 815k BTC plus ETF inflows, and the impact of geopolitical black swans: will they create a golden pit or an endless abyss? We believe it can be viewed in two parts.

Hormuz Strait conflict sparks risk-off selling

On April 19, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $74,950, triggering liquidations of over 200k traders. This “rise first, then fall, rapid reversal” pattern in crypto markets is usually driven by major players shaking out weak hands with news.

The most uncertain factor now is the timing window of the US-Iran ceasefire. The two-week temporary ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran will expire on the morning of April 22 Beijing time, with Trump publicly warning that if no agreement is reached, consequences will follow. This means from market close on April 21 to the Asian trading hours on April 22, there could be a prolonged information vacuum, which is the most vulnerable period for flash crashes.

Bitcoin price under pressure but logic remains unchanged

Despite the tense Middle East situation, institutional logic remains firm. On April 17, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a contrarian net inflow of $284 million, a clear sign of “greed when others are panicking.” Strategy treats each black swan shock as a signal to buy more; in front of it, there are no pits, only accumulation.

Four keywords for the decisive moment

Faced with the tug-of-war around $75,000 and Strategy’s holdings of 815k BTC plus ETF inflows, we believe that the future price of Bitcoin will be determined by four factors:

Ceasefire outcome — whether the US and Iran extend the ceasefire after April 22 will directly influence whether panic selling can be alleviated;

The significance of $75,000 — if Bitcoin falls below and closes under $74,500, it may test the $73,000 zone; if it can stabilize and break through $76,000 with volume, bulls will regain control;

ETF sustainability — whether the three-week consecutive net inflows can continue is a key indicator of institutional “support” strength;

Retail investor sentiment — with over 200k traders liquidated and the panic index at extremely low levels, contrarian signals are already emerging.