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Tonight's outlook remains unchanged, the core message is still: a rebound is an opportunity to short.
The market structure has already been clearly outlined; the head and shoulders top pattern is basically complete. Going long at this position carries risks far greater than potential rewards. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been consistently hugging the upper band, seemingly rebounding, but in reality, it looks more like it’s continuously depleting bullish momentum.
The market rhythm is also quite typical: first, a rally to create a breakout expectation, boosting sentiment; then, after the follow-through traders enter, it quickly pulls back to take profits. Each upward push is more about trapping longs rather than a trend reversal.
Coupled with the current external uncertainties—ongoing tensions between Iran and the US—any sudden news could easily cause market sentiment to spiral out of control. The downward space is often released instantly, leaving little time for reaction.
Operationally, it’s still mainly about shorting at high points. Be patient and wait for the rebound to fully develop before participating; don’t get caught up in mid-rally momentum.
Bitcoin: Gradually short in the 67,000–67,800 range, first target 65,500, if broken, then look at 64,000.
Altcoin: Short in the 2,350–2,380 zone, first target 2,280, if broken, then look at 2,200.
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