Minmetals Futures: Gold prices affected by Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations, closely monitoring US-Iran negotiations.

The optimistic messages previously released by Trump were repeatedly refuted over the weekend, and the factors suppressing gold prices resumed their upward push. The geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz fluctuated again, and oil prices gradually rebounded, further intensifying market concerns about prolonged high interest rates. Based on current COMEX positions and the estimated trading volume disclosed by the Associated Press, the trading enthusiasm for gold at high levels has not cooled down. In the short term, marginal changes in Middle Eastern geopolitical games drive inflation expectations through oil price transmission, which becomes the main factor influencing gold price movements. If the U.S. and Iran reach a relevant agreement in the end, a return to market risk appetite is expected to push gold prices higher. Conversely, if the conflict escalates and triggers energy costs to spiral out of control, gold prices will remain volatile under the pressure of rising the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. However, in the long term, structural weakening of the dollar, global economic policy uncertainties, and central bank gold purchase demand will continue to support the long-term trend of gold prices. As the U.S.-Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement approaches expiration, close attention should be paid to developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the policy messages conveyed at tonight’s WOSH hearing. (Minmetals Futures)