Today, Iran negotiations took place but no talks occurred, so it’s considered a failure. The ceasefire deadline is at 8 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Most likely (about 60–70%): limited military escalation
• U.S.: resume airstrikes
Target Iran’s energy facilities, ports, missile bases, power plants, bridges
• Iran: retaliate
◦ Missile strikes on U.S. military bases, Israeli targets
◦ Block the Strait of Hormuz (the global oil artery)
• Outcomes:
◦ Oil prices surge (break through $120–$160 per barrel)
◦ Global stock markets and gold fluctuate wildly
◦ But no full-scale ground war for now
Trump’s statements before the ceasefire expires, probability ≈ 85%
• Time: Beijing time April 22, 6:00–8:00 (2 hours before ceasefire ends)
• Content: mainly tough stance, almost impossible to ease
◦ “Ceasefire not extended”
◦ “Iran not coming to talks, will resume strikes tomorrow”
◦ “Iran must fully abandon nuclear program and lift sanctions”
As of Beijing time April 21, 23:00, based on the latest signals, clarify in one go:

1. Stock Market: Will it crash tomorrow (April 22)?

It will fall, but not a total collapse or panic sell-off.

• A-shares/Hong Kong stocks/Asia-Pacific:

◦ Likely to open 1%–2.5% lower

◦ Energy/gold/military industry rise, aviation/shipping/consumer fall

◦ Extreme case: less than 20% chance of a single-day drop over 3%

• U.S. stocks:

◦ Already declined slightly tonight (April 21): Nasdaq, S&P 500 dip slightly

◦ Tomorrow (April 22 evening), drop another 1%–2% roughly

• Summary:
A decline is certain, but it’s a “controlled risk-avoidance dip,” not a market crash.

2. Will Trump speak again before the early morning ceasefire? Probability & attitude

He will speak, probability ≈ 85%

• Time: Beijing time April 22, 6:00–8:00 (2 hours before ceasefire ends)

• Content: mainly tough stance, almost impossible to ease

◦ “Ceasefire not extended”
◦ “Iran not coming to talks, will resume strikes tomorrow”
◦ “Iran must fully abandon nuclear program and lift sanctions”
• Probability of easing: ≈ 5%, very low
◦ Unless Iran suddenly makes a full concession, Trump won’t soften his stance.

Post-ceasefire expiration (early morning 8:00) probability:
• 90%: ceasefire not extended
• 70%: U.S. resumes airstrikes (energy, ports, missile bases)
• 60%: Iran retaliates + blocks the Strait of Hormuz
• Outcomes: oil prices break through $110–$130, stock markets remain pressured

4. One sentence summary:
• Stock market: down 1%–2.5% tomorrow, controllable decline
• Trump: highly likely to make a tough speech early morning, almost no easing
• Ceasefire: ends immediately upon expiration, high probability of military escalation
Prepare to buy the dip.