I tried once, taking a project's treasury address as a "vintage radio" to listen to the noise: not paying attention to what their PPT is bragging about, just focusing on whether the spending rhythm and milestones match up. To put it plainly, a team that is truly working will always find some resonance on-chain, in the repository submissions, or community discussions before and after spending money; those that send funds to a bunch of new wallets one by one and then consolidate them back after a few days make me a little uneasy… maybe I’m overthinking it.

Recently, expectations for interest rate cuts have been strong one moment and weak the next, and the US dollar index and risk assets are still discussed together as rising and falling together, with a lot of external noise. The more this happens, the more I want to see if the project’s own “internal cycle” is stable: milestones are genuinely delivered, treasury spending can be roughly explained, not perfect, but at least not pretending to be dead. Anyway, this is my current approach: listen slowly, rather miss out than push hard.