The January 28 decision came after three consecutive quarter-point cuts in the last meetings of 2025, and the March 17-18 meeting confirmed the pause, as the committee pointed to rising inflation and geopolitical instability as reasons to maintain the status quo. Powell presented what analysts called a "hawkish stance" at that meeting, indicating that the Federal Reserve needs more evidence before beginning monetary easing.

The March Federal Reserve economic projections summary, also known as the dot plot, still indicates one quarter-point cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

Traders expect a slight decrease in interest rates. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed on April 14 two expected quarter-point cuts this year, one in October and another in December. Meanwhile, the Kalshi prediction market has recently increased the likelihood of no rate cuts in 2026 to about 40%, and Wells Fargo officially revised its forecast on April 6, no longer expecting any rate cuts this year.
The International Monetary Fund remains cautious. Its latest forecast, detailed in a recent analysis by "The Street," indicates that the federal funds rate will only decrease from 3.6% to 3.4% during 2026, representing a slight easing of monetary policy over the year. The IMF's Executive Board stated that monetary easing would only be appropriate "if there is a significant deterioration in the outlook for the labor market combined with a decline in inflation pressures."