Just caught the US PPI data release from earlier and it's worth paying attention to if you're trading the euro. The headline producer inflation came in hotter than expected at 4.6% year-on-year, up from 3.4% the month before. Month-on-month we saw a pretty sharp jump to 1.2% compared to the softer 0.7% reading previously.

What caught my eye is that core PPI also accelerated - sitting at 4.2% annually versus 3.9% before, with the monthly print at 0.6% against 0.5%. A lot of this is being driven by energy prices spiking due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up gas costs. The thing about stronger US PPI data is it usually makes the Fed hesitant to cut rates, which tends to support the dollar.

Looking at EUR/USD right now, the pair's been trading around 1.1800 and holding above the 20-day moving average at 1.1633. The momentum looks decent with RSI pushing above 60, so buyers seem to have the upper hand at the moment. If we see a break above 1.1825, there's potential to test the February highs near 1.1928. But if the US PPI data spooks traders and the dollar rallies, I'd be watching that 1.1700 level - if that breaks, we could see a quick pullback to the 20-day EMA.

The real question now is whether this hotter US PPI data changes the Fed's rate outlook. Market's been pricing out rate hikes for this year, but inflation at the producer level running this hot could force a rethink. Worth monitoring how this plays out for the currency pair over the next few sessions.