I just saw a report about the fire at the Geelong refinery in Victoria, Australia, which is still not fully under control. This could be a significant catalyst considering Australia only has two operational refineries, and this one processes about 120,000 barrels daily. Logically, bullish speculators might take advantage of this to push the lithium price higher.

But here’s the point: the lithium price is already quite high at the moment. I’ve seen many jumping in to buy at the highs, and honestly, the risk is considerable. The market is full of speculation, and although the refinery event sounds bullish in theory, chasing the lithium price upward from these levels can be dangerous.

My recommendation is to stay cautious. It’s not that the lithium price will necessarily fall, but when we’re already at high levels and speculation is in the air, it’s time to think twice before entering. Better to wait and see how the situation develops.