I just reviewed the Asian oil markets this week and the situation is quite weak across the board. Following that ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, prices are under pressure and spreads are narrowing noticeably. What catches my attention most is how inverted spreads have collapsed: the heavy fuel oil spread between April and May dropped from over $43 to just $30, and the ultra-low sulfur spread fell from $60 to under $40. It's a significant change in a short period. Gasoline is also suffering, with drops of about $170 per ton following crude oil weakness. Although the May-June differential remains high, the crack spread relative to Brent is still at multi-year highs, indicating some price resistance. But where I see real pressure is in gas oil. The gas oil market has been declining for three consecutive days and just hit three-week lows. The crack spread for 10ppm gas oil plummeted to $54.7 per barrel, and the spot price dropped to $34.9. What's interesting is that traders remain concerned about logistics and physical delivery issues through the Strait of Hormuz, which is limiting more pronounced declines. Some shipowners might resume transit during the truce, but most are seeking more operational clarity. As long as that uncertainty persists, gas oil will likely stay under pressure but with a floor supported by navigation risks. An interesting moment to monitor how spreads evolve.

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