Gold rebounds, continues to attract funds, Guotai Gold ETF (518800) closes up nearly 1%, with five consecutive days of net inflows approaching 1 billion yuan.

On April 3rd, gold rebounded, continuing to attract funds, with the Gold ETF Guotai (518800) closing nearly 1% higher, marking five consecutive days of net inflows totaling nearly 1 billion yuan.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities reviewed two oil crises and pointed out that, due to a strengthening US dollar index and expectations of interest rate cuts suppressing the market, gold prices may weaken initially; after a second surge in oil prices reinforcing inflation expectations, gold generally rises in tandem; once oil prices peak and retreat, gold usually follows downward, but with the oil price center higher than before, inflation stickiness may cause gold prices to rise again. Currently, geopolitical conflicts have caused oil prices to rise nearly 50% in the short term, triggering inflation concerns and delaying rate cut expectations, while the strengthening dollar index leads to liquidity-driven gold selling, causing a significant correction in gold prices. If oil prices remain high or surge again, forming strong inflation expectations and the economy enters a stagflation-like environment, gold prices are expected to resume upward movement. In the long term, the trend of de-globalization persists, and central banks’ willingness to buy gold continues to strengthen, with ongoing central bank gold purchases expected.

Against the backdrop of excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, the US dollar credit system faces challenges; coupled with frequent global geopolitical turmoil driving asset reserve diversification, demand for gold as a safe asset continues to rise. The global “de-dollarization” trend makes gold likely to become a new pricing anchor. Pay attention to related products:

Gold ETF Guotai (518800): a direct tool to grasp gold price trends

Gold stock ETF Guotai (517400): potentially with higher performance amplification

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