I’ve been watching the oil market situation for a week now, and it’s becoming increasingly tense. After failed negotiations between the США and Иран, spot oil prices literally took off—Brent surged above 103 dollars, WTI to 104.6. Трамп is threatening to take control of the Ормузский пролив if Иран doesn’t make concessions. Макуэри warns in particular that if the conflict drags on until июнь, the real-time oil price could cross 200 dollars. Asian oil refineries are currently buying oil in any quantities; the spot premium over futures has already exceeded 30 dollars.

Against this backdrop, crypto and dрагmetals are adjusting. Gold fell by one and a half percent to 4700 per ounce, silver even more—by 2.5%. Over the past day, Биток retreated by 2.55% to 76.3K, while эфир dropped by 0.74% to 2.32K. Total crypto market capitalization fell by 2.7% to 2.49 trillion. About 282 million dollars worth of positions were liquidated, including 202 million dollars in longs.

At the same time, the technology sector is holding up better—Nvidia rose by 2.57%, AMD by 3.55%, and Broadcom by 4.69%. Demand for computing power for AI is growing three times faster than its supply. Morgan Stanley believes the market is still underestimating this trend.

Geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on risk assets, but investors continue to pour money into crypto-ETF. It’s interesting to watch how the market shifts from “pricing expectations” to “pricing reality”—capital is concentrating where there is real demand and a shortage of supply.