Just before the stock market opens in China, a wave of optimism arrives from Wall Street. The S&P 500 broke through 7,000 points with a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq has gained eleven consecutive days. Such movements generate a lot of noise in global markets, especially the feeling of 'fear of missing out'.

But here’s the interesting part: while the U.S. stock market explodes upward, everything else retreats. Gold, the dollar, Treasury bonds, and oil all fell at the same time. That’s not normal. It means that the stock rally is driven by something very specific: geopolitical news.

Bloomberg reports that the conflicting parties are considering extending the ceasefire for two more weeks to negotiate peace. A Pakistani delegation has arrived in Iran to mediate between the United States and Iran. The White House spokesperson stated that the negotiations are 'productive' and that there will likely be new rounds in Pakistan.

Now, you have to read between the lines. The word 'productive' is the most optimistic expression we’ve heard since these talks began. But pay attention to the details: only Pakistan is acting as mediator. Usually, when negotiations are progressing well, multiple actors appear—(Europe, Oman, Qatar). A single channel indicates low confidence and extremely sensitive communication. It’s not 'progress,' it’s more like 'limitation.'

Both sides do not want immediate war, but they also do not reach an agreement on key points: Will the Strait of Hormuz open? Will the blockade be lifted? What about nuclear issues? These topics can be postponed, but they are difficult to resolve.

Here’s the fascinating part: the U.S. stock market is already pricing in the 'ideal scenario,' but that outcome doesn’t exist yet. Look at how different markets are behaving: the stock market recovered all its losses since the conflict and even advanced further, reaching all-time highs. The dollar lost almost all the gains it had made. Oil remains 30% above pre-war levels. Gold has not yet recovered from the declines and is 10% below.

The stock market and the dollar are already betting on the 'happy ending.' The other markets are still in the 'process.' That tells me there’s a lot of early speculation in the stock market, but the other assets are not so convinced. Something to keep in mind as these negotiations unfold.