Three strikes tonight for My and Iran, each shattering my wallet

20:30 First strike: Retail data
$RAVE ‌
Forecast to rise by 1.4%, looks pretty strong. But when you peel it back, it’s all gasoline propping it up. In March, oil prices surged 21%—all the extra money spent on gas is counted in retail. After stripping out gasoline and cars, the actual increase is only 0.2%, even slower than last month.
$BTC ‌
Translation: When ordinary people have filled up with gas, their pockets are empty.

20:30 Second strike: Trump on CNBC

Iran won’t be skipped. On one side, he’s shouting “extremely unlikely to extend the ceasefire,” and on the other, he says “negotiations will always happen.” CNN revealed that several of his advisors privately admitted that his mouth is destroying the negotiations—just on Friday there was a bit of progress, yet he’s talking endlessly online and in phone interviews, claiming that Iran fully agreed; Iran denied it on the spot.
$ETH ‌
The market is watching whether he’s bouncing “bombs” or “agreements” out of his mouth. Whether it crashes or rallies—everything depends on his words.

22:00 Third strike: Waugh hearing

The testimony was leaked in advance: interest-rate independence, inflation cannot be brushed off. But the market just wants to hear one word—will it be cut or not. Trump pressures him to cut every day, and Waugh has to pretend to be independent. Senators are waiting to ask: if inflation hasn’t come back to 2%, why cut? Is he taking direction from the White House?

If things go well, he’ll take over in May; if things go badly, he’ll get stuck halfway.

Summary in one line

Retail data punctures the gasoline bubble, Trump steers US–Iran sentiment, and Waugh walks a tightrope between rate cuts and independence. Tonight, no matter who messes up, the US dollar, US Treasuries, and US stocks will all shake.
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