I just saw that natural gas futures in Europe surged during the Asian session, with increases of up to 18%. The Dutch TTF reached €51.30 per megawatt-hour, and it really reflects the geopolitical tension that is affecting energy markets.

What’s happening is that Trump announced a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and that literally triggered all alarms in the sector. Although most Middle Eastern natural gas usually goes to Asia, a prolonged disruption of that route could completely change the global game. Europe would be competing much more aggressively for the limited liquefied natural gas resources, just as we are racing against time to fill storage before the next winter.

Since the military escalation began in February, when the United States and Israel first attacked Iran, European natural gas futures had already risen more than 50%. Now, with this new announcement about the Strait of Hormuz, volatility could intensify even further. The failure of any peace negotiations would keep pressure on prices.

What’s interesting is that this shows how energy markets remain incredibly sensitive to geopolitics. Gas futures respond immediately to any risk signals in global supply. If this prolongs, Europe will face a much more costly and challenging winter. It’s worth paying attention to how this situation develops in the coming days.