The third time I got itchy to chase the rally, I held myself back again: am I really understanding some new information, or is it just that the green and red candles flicker and my heartbeat speeds up? Honestly, positions are often a vote of emotion, not intelligence. Recently, everyone has been talking about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and even this abnormal combination of "risk assets rising and falling together." The more I hear, the more I want to gauge the temperature: the more consistent, the more it seems like a bubble bubbling up. Anyway, my current approach is very simple—first check the funding rate and the tone in the group chat. If it’s heating up, I shrink back first; once I cool down, I decide whether to act or not.