The Federal Reserve's delay in cutting interest rates, along with a strong dollar and high interest rate environment, continues to suppress the entire commodities market.

$CL
Currently, crude oil is caught in a "supply and demand double kill" dilemma.
Supply side: The ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran have eased geopolitical tensions, and the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. After the ceasefire news was announced, the benchmark US crude oil price has already fallen sharply by about 14%.
Demand side: Even worse: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand forecast for 2026 from a growth of 730k barrels per day last month to a contraction of 80k barrels per day, with a projected year-over-year decline of up to 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of this year, Brent crude oil could fall to $60 per barrel, and WTI to $56 per barrel.

$XAU
Gold is currently in a very awkward position.
Geopolitical conflicts should theoretically benefit gold, but rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations, which in turn have forced the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, turning it into a bearish factor. After the March policy meeting, the Fed's dot plot showed only one rate cut expected for all of 2026, and even seven officials believed rate cuts were unnecessary. The funding situation is even worse: In March, commodity ETFs experienced a record outflow of about $11 billion, with gold ETFs alone losing over $7 billion.

$XAG
Silver is like an "amplifier" of gold.
Its industrial properties make silver more sensitive to global growth slowdown than gold. Currently, high oil prices are also dampening global demand expectations, and silver's industrial attributes create a clear drag, making it difficult to fully replicate gold's safe-haven logic. Additionally, silver's positions are more crowded than gold's, so once stop-profit or passive liquidation is triggered, silver's decline usually exceeds that of gold.

Rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, and a strong dollar has in turn suppressed all dollar-denominated commodities. Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from "when will they come" to "whether they will come at all."