For the past two days, people in the group have been asking again, “Will stablecoins lose their peg?” I basically don’t argue anymore—I just go check two things: whether the reserve disclosures can line up, and whether there’s a sudden straightening of the “on-chain line” of large redemptions/transfers into exchanges. To put it simply, losing the peg is often not that the assets suddenly disappear—it’s that the breath of a bank run kicks in, and everyone wants to run one step ahead.

In the past, I only watched the K-line’s red and green; if I saw -0.3%, I even thought it was a “chance.” Now I’m even more afraid of that kind of quiet panic: the price hasn’t really moved, but the redemption queue and the liquidation waterfall are already lining up. Recently, some regions have tightened and loosened taxes and compliance, and deposit/withdrawal expectations have suddenly become more fragile—emotional contagion spreads faster than official announcements… Anyway, I keep only a small position. If I can verify it on-chain, I verify it; if I can’t, I’d rather hold less. Sleeping well is the most important.