#比特币反弹 The current US-Iran ceasefire agreement is about to expire, and the situation is highly tense, with market sentiment swinging back and forth between panic and hope. Although Trump has strongly stated that it is "highly unlikely" to extend the ceasefire and threatened to resume military strikes if no agreement is reached, representatives from both sides are still gradually heading to Pakistan to restart negotiations, indicating that the standoff has not completely broken down.

In terms of market trends, Bitcoin has broken through $76,000, with the NFT sector leading the gains, reflecting that the market is beginning to price in the "worst-case scenario not happening" amid extreme uncertainty. If the ceasefire agreement is ultimately extended or a temporary framework is reached, risk assets could further rally, with Bitcoin's short-term high possibly testing the $80,000–82,000 range. But if negotiations completely break down and the war resumes, the market will quickly shift to safe-haven assets, and the rebound could come to an abrupt halt.
Before the April 22 deadline, market volatility will intensify, and it is recommended to adopt hedging strategies:
Short-term bullish on risk assets: Lightly hold positions in Bitcoin, NFTs, and other rebound leaders, setting stop-losses below $74,000 to gamble on a breakthrough in negotiations.
Simultaneously hedge: Buy gold ETFs or crude oil call options to guard against systemic risks caused by worsening situations.
Pay attention to key signals: Whether Iran confirms its commitment, whether the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, and whether the US shows signs of easing sanctions—these will serve as catalysts for directional decisions.
Currently, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between "hope for negotiations" and "threat of war," and the real turning point remains at the negotiation table.