Just caught some interesting analysis on Japanese government bonds - looks like the market is pricing in the Bank of Japan holding rates steady through at least June. Two analysts from Barclays reckon the central bank will probably skip the April meeting given all the Middle East uncertainty, and Governor Ueda keeps emphasizing the two-way risks around their core outlook.

The 2-year government bond yield ticked up 1 basis point to 1.380%, but the 10-year stayed flat at 2.415%. Seems like traders are hedging their bets on when the bank finally moves. If the situation doesn't stabilize by spring, there's a real chance they push any rate decision further out. The whole picture suggests confidence is pretty shaky right now, which is why the longer end of the curve isn't reacting much.

Worth watching how this plays out over the next couple months - if geopolitical tensions ease, we might see a different story.