So USD against INR has been pretty quiet this Friday, hovering around 92.45. The pair seems stuck in a holding pattern right now while everyone waits for two big things to shake things up - the US March CPI numbers dropping later today and whatever comes out of those US-Iran peace talks happening in Pakistan this weekend.

The inflation data is the immediate catalyst. Markets are pricing in headline CPI hitting 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.4% last month, with the core reading expected around 2.7%. That's mostly because oil prices have been elevated due to Middle East tensions. But here's the thing - if Iran actually agrees to normalize things around the Strait of Hormuz, the Fed might just brush off the inflation spike as a one-time event rather than something that changes their rate outlook. That's actually the bigger wildcard than the CPI print itself.

On the technical side, USD against INR is trading below the 20-day moving average at 92.85, which is acting as a ceiling. The momentum indicators are fading - RSI is sitting around 46.5, basically neutral. So far there's no real conviction either way. If sellers continue, the next floor to watch is somewhere below 92.00, but we'd need a daily close above 92.85 to even think about the pair pushing toward 93.50-94.00 again.

Interestingly, the selling pressure from foreign investors has actually cooled down quite a bit. After that temporary US-Iran ceasefire was announced mid-week, FIIs have been offloading at around 2,261 crore rupees per day - that's way less than the 8,780 crore average we were seeing before. So while USD against INR might drift around for now, at least the panic selling from overseas money seems to be easing up.