Different views are emerging within the FRB. Last week, three district Federal Reserve presidents each spoke one after another, hinting at the possibility that the market is paying close attention to: keeping interest rates unchanged.

Musalem, President of the St. Louis Fed, emphasized the risk that higher oil prices could push up core inflation. He pointed out that the core inflation rate this year could move toward 3% or even reach 3%. This is a level far above the FRB’s 2% target. In his view, it is necessary to maintain the current interest-rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% for a “considerable period.” The background is a complicated situation: while the effects of tariffs are gradually fading, rising crude oil prices are continuing to keep up inflationary pressure.

Goolsby, President of the Chicago Fed, is taking an even more hawkish view. He said that higher oil prices could significantly raise consumers’ inflation expectations, calling it a “double threat.” The combination of rising oil prices while inflation from tariffs has not yet completely disappeared is a particularly difficult situation for the FRB to manage.

Hammock, President of the Cleveland Fed, said that while he believes the current level of interest rates is appropriate, there are risks in both directions. He emphasized that, in an environment where core inflation remains elevated, the occurrence of a new energy-price shock is complicating policy judgments. What matters is how far energy prices will rise and how long they will stay elevated.

What emerges from the comments by the three officials is that the FRB is currently facing the difficulty of striking a balance between inflation and growth. As of February, core inflation has reached 3%, and in March it is expected to rise further to 3.2%. Because inflation has remained above the 2% target for the past five years, market participants are also concerned about inflation expectations becoming entrenched.

The labor market is in a balanced state, and wage pressure is moderate. However, the oil market has faced its third supply shock in the past 12 months, and the extent of its impact on economic growth and employment remains unclear.

In conclusion, the FRB will likely take a cautious approach over the coming months, closely assessing how the data unfolds. The trajectory of the core inflation rate, employment statistics, and developments in the Middle East will become key factors determining the next policy decision. From the market’s perspective, this is a period in which it should expect that interest rates will likely remain on hold for the time being.