Recently, I saw someone use a chart of stablecoin supply paired with ETF inflows, and immediately started imagining "funds are coming, so it’s time to take off." I can understand this sense of reassurance, but honestly, correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins might just mean more waiting off-chain, or an increase in on-chain arbitrage or market-making inventories—it's not that straightforward.

Today, I simply set alerts and limit orders at a few key levels, and after doing that, I felt a bit more at ease: no need to watch the charts and guess market sentiment, just wait for the signals to come knocking. The kind of collapse points seen in previous blockchain games are actually similar—inflation + studio activity + coin price spiral, the data looks lively, but turning points come very suddenly. Anyway, I now prefer to slowly observe the chain reactions of interest rates and liquidations, rather than rushing to craft stories for every curve.