Today I saw those "coincidental transfers" on the blockchain, but honestly most of them aren't coincidences; it's just that the path wasn't fully revealed: A sends to a new address, which immediately splits into several transactions, bypassing common tags, then enters an exchange/bridge/mixer or similar entry point. When you match the time, amount, and fee habits, many of the connections become clear... Of course, there are false positives as well, so now I'm more concerned with whether the "path is reasonable" rather than whether a particular transaction looks like a big spender.

These days, the funding rates are extremely volatile, and the group is arguing whether to reverse or continue squeezing the bubble. I don't follow that sentiment anyway; I’d rather spend ten extra minutes clarifying the flow to make sure it's not just a bunch of addresses "acting out" with each other. First, I’ll note down the two suspicious paths I saw today, and check again tomorrow morning.