Just caught an interesting take from Julius Baer's analysis on oil prices. Their team is making a solid point here - despite all the Middle East tension we keep hearing about, they reckon crude prices may have already hit their peak.

Here's what caught my attention: they're saying demand still outpaces supply right now, and obviously trade through the Strait of Hormuz needs to stabilize eventually. But the worst of the shock? Probably already behind us.

The comparison they're drawing is pretty revealing. They're looking back at the 1990 gulf war as the reference point - that created a sharp price spike but it was relatively brief. Using that gulf war precedent, they're suggesting we might already be past the peak in this cycle.

What makes this interesting is that it goes against the doom narrative. Most people are still bracing for worse, but if you think about how 1990 played out versus what we're seeing now, there's actually a case to be made that the market's already priced in the worst-case scenario. Worth keeping an eye on how crude actually moves from here.