Recently, when looking at on-chain transfers, someone always says, "Isn't this too much of a coincidence?"

But now I force myself to break down "coincidence": where the money comes from (exchange/old address/contract), how many hops it passes through, whether it was synchronized and split by a bunch of addresses within the same time window, and finally whether the destination ends up back in the same pool or into the same type of position.
Many so-called coincidences are actually just the same script/studio running; once the path is laid out, it’s no longer so mysterious.

The kind of economic collapse in blockchain games is also quite similar: when inflation kicks in, the studio releases a batch of accounts, the token price drops, and on-chain paths immediately become "neat," since everyone is queuing at the same exit.

Recently, I’ve also scaled down my targets: I no longer chase all signal explanations, just focus on two or three stable paths that can be reliably reconstructed.
As a result, I’ve persisted longer and my emotions are less easily swayed by "coincidences."
That’s all for now.