CITIC Futures: Frequent geopolitical disturbances, crude oil fluctuating within a high range

Currently, negotiations still face setbacks, and the continuation of low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to disprove, but as the expiration date of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement approaches, it is advisable to mainly adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. Due to sustained low supply in the Middle East, global crude oil and refined product inventories have significantly declined. Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is substantially eased, the recovery of Middle Eastern oil production may be slightly delayed, and with low inventories of refined products, refinery procurement demand year-on-year will also clearly increase. As a result, futures prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels. (CITIC Futures)