Huatai Futures: Bauxite prices have strong support, and the oversupply situation of alumina supply and demand continues

Spot prices have not yet shown signs of improvement, but the market prices are rebounding due to undervaluation. On the mining side, because freight costs fluctuate significantly, miners are cautious in their shipments, providing some support to bauxite ore prices. Although Guinea has made it clear that it has no intention of stopping raw material exports, it will introduce the Guinea Bauxite Index as an official FOB benchmark. While this reduces the expectation of tight ore supply, cost-side support remains effective, especially given the difficulty in energy prices falling back. In terms of alumina supply and demand, oversupply persists, with continued pressure from warehouse receipts, and the nearby month contracts remain relatively weak. The current market prices have fallen to the maximum cash cost of marginal production, and cost support will become evident. After the price decline, the risk of premium reduction decreases, and it is still possible to buy on dips for hedging. ( Huatai Futures )