Oil prices soar, BTC plunges: a "turn of face" in the Middle East, and the market starts writing a horror story?

The plot unfolds faster than the market: Iran's statement of "retaliation" immediately shifts the market from "wait-and-see mode" to "risk-avoidance mode." The result is straightforward—BTC drops below 74,000, WTI crude oil opens 5% higher. This is not a coincidence; it's a typical "risk sentiment linkage."
First, answer the first question: how will the situation develop? In the short term, it is highly likely to enter a "high-frequency friction period." It won't escalate fully immediately, but small conflicts and strong statements will continuously refresh market sentiment. This state is the most frustrating because it is uncertain but keeps generating volatility.
Second question: can oil still be chased now? This wave of rise is more "expectation-driven." If you jump in now, you might buy at the emotional high point. A more reasonable approach is: wait for a pullback to confirm whether there is continued capital support. Simply put—don't chase the first wave, wait for the second wave.
Third question: what about BTC? In this environment, it will be regarded as a "risk asset." Short-term volatility is likely, and the strategy should shift from "trend following" to "range trading." Buying low and selling high is more important than blindly bullish.
One sentence summary: the market isn't getting worse, it's becoming more sensitive. What you need to do is not predict the plot but control the rhythm. #美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡