The Strait of Hormuz Is the Biggest Bargaining Chip: Not Opening—Is It a Threat or a Negotiation Art?

In this game of chess, the most critical geographical keyword is — Strait of Hormuz.
About one-third of the world’s seaborne oil has to pass through here; once it’s blocked, the market’s reaction won’t be “volatility,” but “tripping the breaker.” So when Donald Trump mentions “not opening,” in essence, he’s dealing out a “maximum-pressure” card.
But the question is: will this card really be played?
The answer is likely — it won’t be used so easily. Because if a real blockade actually happens, it won’t just hurt the other side; it will also hurt the global economy, even including oneself.
So a more reasonable way to understand it is: this is a “psychological warfare” weapon on the negotiation table. It’s said to make the other side sit down, not to actually carry it out.
Where will the situation go? In the short term, tension; in the medium term, a game of bargaining; in the long term, there is still the possibility of returning to the negotiation track.
— Conclusion: This is not a war button; it’s a bargaining chip. #美伊二轮谈判进展