As of April 21, after experiencing sharp volatility earlier, Bitcoin has entered a critical contest range. The current price is ranging between $73,000 and $77,000. Bulls are trying to push higher, but they face strong resistance, and the relative strength of bulls and bears remains fairly balanced.

Technical analysis shows intertwined bullish and bearish signals. The $76,500-$77,000 area above is the short-term resistance zone, while $80,000 is the medium-term strong resistance level; the $74,000-$75,000 area below is the key support band. If it is lost, it may lead to a retest of $72,000-$73,000. Daily MACD bearish momentum is weakening. Although there is a golden cross signal on the 4-hour level, the 4H MACD has already formed a death cross, indicating momentum is slowing down. In the short term, the risk of a pullback still needs to be watched closely.

Market sentiment and the macro environment. The Fear and Greed Index is hovering between 33 and 21, and market sentiment is cautious. On the macro level, factors such as the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire deadline, unclear expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and the SEC making crypto regulation its top priority create many uncertainties for the market.

On-chain data shows structural divergence. On one hand, funds from over 64% of active addresses flow into O, K, X, and coin an. Whale addresses are increasing their distribution, and short-term selling pressure risk is rising. On the other hand, institutions keep buying through spot ETFs, with daily inflows reaching as high as $186 million. Demand for allocation from corporate treasury funds is forming price-bottom support.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a period of choosing direction. If it can effectively break through $76,500-$77,000 and hold, upside potential will be opened. If it is unable to break through for a long time, range-bound consolidation and adjustment may continue. Until the direction becomes clear, investors are advised to stay cautious and manage their positions reasonably.

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