My first reaction when I see on-chain "opportunities" now is: this is most likely a fee paid to someone else... It may not necessarily be a loss, but don’t be too confident. The reason is simple: many so-called arbitrage windows are actually being watched the moment you click confirm: when slippage opens, or the pool is shallow, a sandwich attack can come in, and in the end, all you get is leftovers, with fees and spreads eaten up in advance.

Recently, some people interpret large transfers and unusual activity in exchange hot and cold wallets as "smart money," and I do pay attention, but mostly as a liquidity warning: where it might deepen or shallow, and where it’s easy to be swept. To put it plainly, the truly smart moves usually don’t require you to watch. My approach is a bit more conservative: I prefer to do less, be more cautious in my postings, and rather miss out than chase after others’ fuel.