Just came across an interesting take from ANZ on where the RBNZ is heading. The NZ bank is calling for three consecutive rate hikes starting mid-year - 25 basis points each in July, September, and October. That would bring the official cash rate to 3%.

What caught my attention is their reasoning. ANZ's view is that inflation pressures are building enough that keeping rates at stimulative levels would make the central bank uncomfortable. So they're essentially saying the RBNZ has no choice but to move.

Here's where it gets interesting though. Sharon Zollner, ANZ's Chief Economist, made a notable point - she's saying this rate hiking cycle won't need to go as far as previously thought. The NZ banking sector consensus was looking at potentially 3.5%, but ANZ now thinks 3% is the terminal rate. Once they hit that level, they'll hold steady.

It's a pretty significant shift in expectations from a major NZ bank. Instead of an aggressive tightening cycle, we're looking at a more measured approach. The question now is whether other forecasters follow ANZ's lead or if there's more hawkishness priced in. Either way, this kind of guidance from the big players shapes how markets react to each RBNZ decision.