I just checked how the market is setting prices based on expectations of rate cuts this year, and honestly, the numbers are quite interesting. Short-term interest rate futures in the United States show that there is a lot of betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least once in 2026.

What caught my attention is how they reacted after the CPI report. The futures recovered some of what they had gained, suggesting that the market is still processing how aggressive the central bank might be. Pricing in these instruments is quite sensitive to inflation data, so each report causes movements.

Basically, the market is betting that we will see at least one cut before the end of the year, but with some caution. Inflation data will continue to be key in confirming whether those expectations hold or if adjustments are needed.