Recently, I was reviewing how geopolitical conflicts end up directly impacting our wallets, and the case of gasoline prices in the United States is a perfect example of this. Since tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran at the end of February, fuel prices in the North American country have experienced a brutal rise that no one expected to be so sustained.

The numbers are quite compelling. The average gasoline price reached around $4.12 per gallon, surpassing what was seen during the 2022 crisis when Russia invaded Ukraine. But the most shocking is diesel: it hit $5.65 per gallon, more than 60 cents above the maximum recorded a few years ago. Since late February, the cumulative increase has exceeded $1.10 per gallon.

What’s interesting is that although there were moments when the market speculated about truce negotiations and gasoline prices retreated a bit, the overall level remained high. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was quite clear in his statements: these prices could stay high for several more weeks. The Energy Information Administration even projected that if the conflict is resolved in April, the national average during the second quarter would still be around $4.16 per gallon.

But here’s what really catches my attention from a macroeconomic perspective. Diesel isn’t just another fuel; it’s what drives logistics, agriculture, and industry. When diesel prices go up, food prices go up, transportation costs rise, and practically all goods dependent on distribution increase. This is already reflected in inflation data. Airfares also increased because aviation fuel rose, just as the summer travel season begins.

Analysts warn of something important: if these energy prices stay at these levels, consumers’ purchasing power will erode even further, and economic recovery will become more difficult. It’s one of those cascading effects that shows how geopolitical events are not just numbers in the news but end up directly affecting people’s real economy.