The commodity market is showing interesting movements. Especially for investors paying attention to gold, UBS's recent analysis is not to be missed.

In short, as long as geopolitical risks and supply-demand imbalances persist, there is still room for the overall commodity market to rise. UBS analysts point out that even if the situation in Iran stabilizes, the bullish trend in commodities like crude oil and gold is likely to continue.

In fact, Brent crude oil has risen from about $72 per barrel a few months ago to nearly $102 now. This reflects structural issues where inventories are low, and higher prices are needed to suppress demand. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are similar, with the long-term demand supported by the electrification trend.

Regarding gold, short-term movements appear somewhat bearish. It is currently about 13% below its all-time high, with rising interest rate expectations suppressing the upside. However, this is a key point: gold is not a hedge against war itself, but rather a hedge asset against inflation, macro risks, and currency risks.

Looking at past conflicts, gold tends to rise initially but then adjusts during rate hike cycles. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold rose 15%, then fell 15-18%. In other words, the current correction is just following a historical pattern.

UBS's view is that if interest rate outlooks decline, gold could have even greater upside potential. In a scenario for 2026, gold prices could rise to the $6,200 range, representing more than a 20% increase from current levels.

Interestingly, the demand fundamentals for gold remain solid. Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, and rising incomes in Asia are boosting jewelry demand. Furthermore, as de-dollarization progresses, high government debt levels will support gold demand over the medium to long term.

For investors already holding large gold positions, diversifying their portfolios with other commodities such as copper, aluminum, and agricultural products is recommended. In environments with supply-demand imbalances and rising macro risks, broader commodity allocations tend to deliver stronger returns than single assets.

This year, the commodity market has already gained 17%, and this upward trend seems likely to continue. The $6,200 target for gold is not an unrealistic figure but rather a scenario based on structural support.